01 February 2010

The rest of my Scott Brown post...

As I was saying before we were so rudely interrupted...

4.) Senator Brown will do some very puzzling things in the next thirty-two months - As with any new and relatively unknown celebrity/politician, we're already seeing many pundits project their own opinions and desires on the new junior senator. But don't forget, he has to stand for re-election in a bit over 2-1/2 years (assuming he chooses to run) and he will not be facing "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia" Coakley again. Nor will he have the advantage of insurgency while an anti-incumbent tide is surging. However, as a Republican in the Peoples' Republic and an incumbent himself, he may well be the underdog in 2012 as well.

So - in the age of the perpetual campaign, he's already running for re-election. What does that mean?
  • On the issues which elected him, he'll be the guy we elected. I expect Senator Brown to vigorously oppose further treatment of terrorists as civilian criminals rather than enemy combatants. He's not going to be the 60th vote for any flavor of socialized medicine, and the Democrat party knows it. Etc.
  • His last name is "Brown", not "Quixote" - he's already dreamt the impossible dream once this year, don't look for him to join any filibusters against a Supreme Court nominee prior to November 2012, in fact expect him to be an easy "yea" vote for an Obama nominee - unless said nominee makes Sonia Sotomayer look like Robert Bork.
  • Expect a few "huh?" moments on issues of lesser importance, where his vote is not pivotal or where the style outranks the substance. As Whittaker Chambers said, "to live is to manuever" and Senator Brown will need a bipartisan (and not-too-conservative) voting record and a reputation for independence come 2012. When (if) Obama proposes something sensible, Senator Brown will be among the first to support him publicly. With qualifications. Not only is it the right thing to do, but it'll give him credibility, and he'll still have plenty of freedom to distance himself from the Administration when they revert to (statist) form.

This whole thing is fascinating, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the drama plays out. Right now, between his comments on the socialized medicine bill and his new budget it looks like the President is going for broke. (At any rate we'll be broke!) It's almost as though he's daring Brown and the G.O.P. to stop him. That's where the rubber meets the road - that's why we elected Scott Brown. I think what happens between now and November is what the voters will remember in 2012.

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